Initial Weekly Jobless Claims higher than expected

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Published Date 1/18/2022

Published Date 1/13/2022

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -42 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were higher than expected, 230K vs. est. of 200K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average increased to 210K. Continuing Claims dropped to 1.559M vs. est. of 1.733M.

Inflation: The headline PPI grew at a 9.7% pace on a YOY basis vs. expectations of 9.8%. Core (ex food and energy) increased by 8.3% vs. est. of 8.0% on YOY basis.

Treasury Sales: We have an important 30 year Treasury bond auction at 1 pm.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning we finally see a calmer day. Volatility is moderate as the afternoon could still see big changes.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TB

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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