Published Date 9/25/2018
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are moving sideways to slightly higher so far today. The MBS market worsened by -12 bps yesterday. This probably was enough to worsen mortgage rates or fees. The rates experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
Fed: The FOMC started two days of policy meetings, and we 'll get their FOMC policy statement and rate decision at 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday.
Housing: The July 20 Metro-City Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a YOY gain of 5.9% which was lower than estimates of 6.2%. But that was partly due to an upward revision to June from 6.3% to 6.4%. The FHFA (much larger data set) July MOM home price change showed a 0.2% increase, YOY it showed a 6.4% gain.
Consumer Confidence: The September reading was a block-busting 138.4 which is the highest reading since September 2000 and easily beat out forecasts of 131.7.
Treasury Dump: Today we have our 5-year note auction at 1:00.
Manufacturing: The regional Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was much stronger than expected, 29 vs 22.
Japan: Leading Economic Index 103.9 vs set of 104.1
Germany: Wholesale Prices 0.3% vs est of 0.2%
Mortgage rates ticked higher yesterday on moderate volatility. We're looking for the same today after a very robust manufacturing and consumer confidence numbers. However, we're not likely to see a significant move higher before the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
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