Mortgage rates remain in tight channel

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Published Date 4/3/2018

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving slightly higher so far today. The MBS market worsened by -3 bps yesterday. This wasn't enough to worsen mortgage rates or fees. Rates experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Higher

Vehicle Sales: The March reading is expected to hit 16.9M by the end of day vs. a 17.08M pace in February. This is a report where each manufacturer releases their sales data, and by the end of the day, we add it up...so it's not a singular data point release. In an interesting move, GM says it will switch from releasing monthly numbers to only releasing Quarter-on-Quarter changes.

Fed: Today we hear from Neel Kashkari (nonvoting member).

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept their key interest rate at 1.5%.

Germany: Retail Sales MOM 0.7% vs est of 0.8%.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Average

Mortgage rates are likely to move sideways to slightly higher today and remain in the very right channel. Unexpected news on NAFTA or talks of a trade war is something that can increase volatility and move rates our of the tight range.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.