Consumer confidence dips but still near 18-year high

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Published Date 3/27/2018

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways far today. The MBS market worsened by -10 bps yesterday. This probably wasn't enough to worsen mortgage rates or fees. Rates experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: The trailing Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January showed home prices increasing at the fastest pace in 4 years with a 6.4% YOY gain in their 20 metro-city index.

Consumer Confidence: The March reading continues a trend of very high levels. It was just off its record-setting pace in February (127.7 vs 103.8).

Manufacturing: The March regional Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index hit 15 vs est of 23.

Treasury Auction: Today we have our 5-year note at 1EST.

Fed: Today we hear from Raphael Bostic.

Germany: Import Prices fell by -0.6% vs est of -0.3%

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence 0.1 vs est of 0.1

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

Yesterday and once again so far today, mortgage rates are trending sideways with little volatility. Look for much of the same for the rest of today. The one thing that can move mortgage rates and create volatility today is news about a trade agreement with China or an unexpected geopolitical event.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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