Weekly jobless claims back off 48-year low

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Published Date 3/8/2018

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are moving sideways to slightly lower so far today. The MBS market improved by +4 bps yesterday. This probably wasn't enough to improve mortgage rates or fees. The rates experienced low volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: The February Challenger Grey Job Cuts showed that major corporate layoffs dropped from 44,653 in January down to only 35,369 in February. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 231K vs. est of 220K. The more closely watched 4-week moving average is still near a 45 year low at 222,500.

Tariffs: We are supposed to get more details from the White House at 3:30 PM ET today which may (or may not) include 30-day exemptions for Canada and Mexico and/or trade-offs with NAFTA agreements.

China: Their Exports YOY jumped by 44.5% vs est of 13.6%

Germany: Factory Orders were weaker than expected YOY 8.2% vs est of 11.4%

Eurozone: The ECB kept their key interest rate unchanged at 0.0% and their deposit rate at -0.4%.

They increased their GDP projections: 2018: 2.4% (Prev. 2.3%), 2019: 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%), 2010: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%) and lowered their Inflation Projections: 2018: 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%), 2019: 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%), 2010: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%). In their policy statement, the ECB dropped its pledge to "increase the asset purchase program in terms of size and/or duration" if necessary by removing the so-called easing bias on QE. They're showing more confidence that they'll be able to phase the program out.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Average

Mortgage rates are likely to continue to stay in a very tight range today. The one wildcard is the announcement about the tariffs. If there's any new news, we could see rate and market volatility.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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