The October Jobs report was lower than expected

___

Published Date 11/1/2024

Markets waited all week for October employment data; it hit at 8:30 am ET. No news on jobs, the hurricanes set back BLS with little data to report; nevertheless, rates improved. The unemployment rate reported unchanged at 4.1%, average hourly earnings increased from +0.3% to +0.4%, year/year +4.0% up from a revised September, earnings originally reported at 4.0% to +3.9%, the labor participation rate reported at 62.6% down from 62.7%. Rates rallied; non-farm jobs expected +120K reported +12k, private jobs thought to be +90K declined 28K, Wednesday ADP reported private jobs increased 223K. It shouldn’t be a surprise the data would be skewed given what happened with October weather, what does surprise is the reaction to news that has little credibility. A nice surprise mostly driven by very over-extended movements in markets recently. The focus today, the revisions to September jobs, revised from 254K to 78K, private jobs revised from 223K to 192K.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +197, NASDAQ +96k, S&P +27. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.27% -2 bps after declining to 4.22% on the initial reaction to the employment data. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +16 bps and +30 bps from 9:30 am yesterday; the 6.0 coupon +14 bps and +19 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am October PMI manufacturing index, expected at 47.8 from 47.3, reported at 48.5.

At 10 am October ISM manufacturing index, the estimate 47.7 from 47.2, reported at 46.5.

September construction spending +0.1% as expected, August revised from -0.1% to +0.1%; year/year spending 4.6% down from 4.8%.

Next week’s calendar doesn’t have anything of consequence prior to the election. Next Thursday the FOMC meeting.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.