US import prices continue to fall

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Published Date 10/16/2024

This morning a slight improvement in markets to begin the day. The bellwether 10 year note spent the previous four sessions finding support at 4.10%, yesterday some relief and this morning at 4.00% the next resistance level.

The lone economic release today, September import and export prices; import prices in the US fell by 0.4% from the previous month in September of 2024, extending the revised 0.2% drop in August, in line with market expectations to mark the sharpest decline since the start of the year. The decline was largely attributed to a 7% plunge in the cost of fuel imports and a 7.1% drop in that of petroleum imports. In the meantime, non-fuel import prices ticked up by 0.1% for the third consecutive month, as a 1.1% increase in costs of purchases of nonfuel industrial supplies and materials and a 0.2% increase in the price of consumer goods offset a 1.5% drop in the cost of food imports. From the corresponding period of the previous year, import prices eased by 0.1%, the first decline since February.

Yesterday Treasury reported the fiscal 2024 debt was $1.8 trillion, in 2023 $1.7 trillion, Total deficit $34 trillion and will continue to increase. The IMF report today; Public debt levels are elevated around the world and expected to exceed $100 trillion in 2024. After a decline in 2021-22, global public debt edged up again in 2023 and is projected to approach 100 percent of GDP by 2030, with the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States, largely driving the increase. Although debt is projected to stabilize or decline by 2029 in about two-thirds of the world’s countries, it remains higher than before the pandemic. The IMF is warning that increasing debt will drag economic growth down.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened flat as were the NASDAQ and S&P; yesterday strong selling in all three key indexes; DJIA -7, NASDAQ +7, S&P +2 this morning. The 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.01% -3 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +5 bps from yesterday and -1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Tomorrow weekly jobless claims and September retail sales.

Source: TBWS

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