NEXA Mortgage
Volatility is high as markets react to a cornucopia of data
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Published Date 11/27/2024
Prior to 8:30 am ET the 10 year note at 4.26% -5 bps. After the 8:30 am data the 10 year note slipped another bp to 4.25%. The key data hit at 10 am with the Fed’s preferred inflation data, PCE. Today has plenty of data to absorb.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications were better than forecasts; total applications expected +1.7% increased 6.3%, purchase applications thought to be +2.0% increased 12.4%, and re-finance applications declined 2.5% against forecasts of +1.8%.
8:30 am data: weekly jobless claims at 213K -2K from the previous week, a seven-month low. The four-week moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility fell by 1,250 to 217,000. On the other hand, the non-seasonally adjusted claim count rose by 29,101 to 243,389, with sharp increases in California (+4,974), Illinois (+2,924) and Pennsylvania (+2,758). Moreover, outstanding claims rose to 1,907,000 in the prior week, the most since November 2021. October durable goods orders expected +0.5% increased 0.2%, ex-transportation orders month/month +0.1% with forecasts of +0.2%, core capital goods month/month -0.2% from +0.3% in September. The second look at Q3 GDP unchanged from the advance report released last month at +2.8%; the annual rate of personal consumption expenditures increased 3.5% slightly lower that 3.7% estimates. October US trade deficit thought to be -$104.5B reported -$99.1B. Imports fell 5.4% while exports declined 3.2%.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +30, NASDAQ -59, S&P -10. 10 year note 4.25% -6 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am November Chicago purchasing managers index, expected at 44.2 from 41.6, reported at 40.2, the Chicago region continues to weaken.
At 10 am, key October inflation data and personal income and spending. PCE month/month +0.2%, year/year 2.3% +2.3% as expected but up from 2.1% in September. Core PCE +0.3% month/month, year/year 2.8% from 2.7% in September; the data is what estimates were. October personal income month/month +0.6% against +0.3%, personal spending +0.4% as expected.
Also at 10 am, October pending home sales, expected -1.8% from +7.4% in September. Sales increased 2.0%.
At 1 pm $44B 7 year note auction.
Look for trading to thin out this afternoon ahead of Thanksgiving tomorrow. Friday the stock market will close at 1 pm, the bond market at 2 pm.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NEXA Mortgage, LLC (NMLS #1660690) 3100 W Ray Rd 201, Suite 209, Chandler, AZ 85226 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org); Equal Housing Opportunity
Scott Moon
Mortgage Maniac
NMLS: 1492315
NEXA Mortgage
3100 W Ray Rd 201 Suite 209, Chandler AZ 85226
Company NMLS: #1660690
Office: 202-352-5625
Cell: 202-352-5625
Email: smoon@nexamortgage.com
