Published Date 1/31/2024
The FOMC and Powell later this afternoon, in the meantime data this morning bolstering rates, the 10 year note yield at 8:30 am ET -2 bps after falling to 4.00% overnight. At 10 am 3.95% -8 bps.
January ADP private jobs were weaker than forecasts, +107K with estimates at 145K, December revised from 164K to 158K. Yesterday December JOLTS opening were stronger than forecasts suggesting businesses are still looking for workers. ADP said jobs were mostly in leisure and hospitality, construction, and transportation. ADP doesn’t include government workers, NFP jobs expected at 180K on Friday when the official BLS data is released.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications slipped last week; -3.7% after increasing 3.7% the week prior. Purchase application -11.4% from +7.5% and re—finances +1.6% from -7.0%. The decline likely due to weather conditions last week.
Q4 employment cost index forecasts +1.0% reported at +0.9%, the smallest increase in over two years, Q2 2021. Year/year employment costs were up 4.2%, the Fed wants labor costs at about 3.5% year/year. The data is considered a main component measuring labor costs.
Supporting the outlook for potential lower rates, yesterday the IMF added its view that inflation is easing even as growth being steady. Looking for global growth at 3.1% this year, up from previous forecast of 2.9% and the same growth in 2023. IMF saying global inflation is expected at 4.4% down from 6.8% last year.
Treasury released the details of its quarterly refunding this morning, adding support for rates. More borrowing for the quarter than last quarter but saying there will be no more increased borrowing after this quarter. Most of the increases come on the 2 year and 5 year notes, $3B a month more, 10 year note increasing $2B a month and 30 year $1B a month.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +68, NASDAQ -165, S&P -24. 10 year 3.99% -4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +20 bps from yesterday’s close and +14 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am January Chicago purchasing managers index, expected at 48.1 from 46.9 declined to 46.0. Under 50 considered contraction.
Waiting for the FOMC and Powell this afternoon. No rate cuts at this meeting, the focus on what may lie ahead for the Fed. There won’t be quarterly projections at this meeting so it will fall on what Jerome Powell will say at his press conference. Recent improvements in rates the last few sessions suggest traders are expecting a rate cut at the March meeting, what comes from Powell will either confirm or cool that idea.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NEXA Mortgage, LLC (NMLS #1660690) 3100 W Ray Rd 201, Suite 209, Chandler, AZ 85226 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org); Equal Housing Opportunity
NMLS: 1492315
NEXA Mortgage
3100 W Ray Rd 201 Suite 209, Chandler AZ 85226
Company NMLS: #1660690
Office: 202-352-5625
Cell: 202-352-5625
Email: smoon@nexamortgage.com
NMLS: 1492315
Cell: 202-352-5625
5/15/2024
Traders and markets waited two weeks for current inflation data, yesterday April... view more
4/22/2024
Click the link; buy a sofa. Click on another; buy a pergola for your backyard...... view more
4/22/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more
3/28/2024
They say what goes up must come down. Buying, rehabbing, and reselling homes for... view more
3/13/2024
Yesterday in reaction to the slightly higher inflation reported on the February ... view more
3/12/2024
That geodesic dome you see along the edge of the freeway or the house shaped lik... view more
3/7/2024
It’s obvious that when homebuyers prefer to buy in a well-established neighborho... view more
3/4/2024
Ever heard that joke about how you can buy a 5-course steak dinner in Podunk for... view more