Published Date 3/27/2024
Markets started the day fractionally better, the 10 year note at 8 am ET 4.22% -1 bp, early MBS prices +5 bps from yesterday. So far this week rates across the curve have been confined to very narrow ranges, positioning for Friday’s February PCE inflation release when markets will be closed.
The only scheduled news today, weekly MBA mortgage applications. Weekly apps last week down 0.7% from the previous week that was down 1.6% from the week before that. Purchase applications -0.2% after slipping 1.2% prior while re-finances fell 1.6% from -2.5% the week before.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +237, NASDAQ +96, S&P +29. Stock indexes since last Friday have been trending down, based on the open today may break the decline although there isn’t any direct news for the better open. The 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.23% down 1 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am unchanged from yesterday’s close and +8 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 1 pm Treasury will complete this week’s borrowing with $43B 7 year note auction. Monday’s 2 year auction was soft, yesterday’s 5 year auction saw good bidding.
This week hasn’t had any key market-moving data but that will change tomorrow and Friday. Tomorrow weekly jobless claims thought to be 213K up from 210K, claims have settled into a narrow range the last month, that should continue. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, yesterday the consumer sentiment index was weaker than forecasts, the present conditions index increased but the expectations based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 73.8, down from 76.3 last month. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a forthcoming recession.
Friday is the day for key data, all we can do is watch because the bond market is scheduled to close Thursday at 2 pm for the rest of the week. The PCE inflation data on Friday; month/month +0.4% from +0.3%, year/year +2.5% from 2.4% but looking at the core as Powell does month/month +0.3% from +0.4%, year/year unchanged at +2.8%.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
“Equal Housing Lender. NEXA Mortgage, LLC NMLS 1660690. I am a licensed mortgage originator, NMLS # 630337, and licensed to originate mortgage loans in the state of Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, Tennessee, and Texas. To learn more, visit my NEXA Mortgage website at http://lillianwong.net."
NMLS: 630337
NEXA Mortgage
3100 W Ray Rd Ste 201, Chandler AZ 85226
Company NMLS: 1660690
Office: 480-650-5412
Cell: 480-650-5412
Email: lwong@nexamortgage.com
NMLS: 630337
Cell: 480-650-5412
5/3/2024
Buying your first home. It’s not like buying your first car. With a car you can ... view more
5/3/2024
April unemployment rate increased to 3.9% from 3.8%, NFP jobs increased 175K, th... view more
5/2/2024
April Challenger Job Cuts dropped from 90K in March down to 65K in April but sti... view more
5/1/2024
The shot heard ‘round the world was the boom many cities experienced during the ... view more
5/1/2024
Its May Day and the FOMC meeting. Rates began unchanged from yesterday’s selling... view more
4/30/2024
You don’t simply buy a home these days. You compete for one. The home-buying sea... view more
4/30/2024
The 1st QTR Employment Cost Index was higher than expected, up 1.2% versus estim... view more
4/29/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more