Markets will have lots of inflation data to work with this week

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Stock index futures prior to the 9:30 am ET open were fractionally better, generally unchanged. Over the weekend the Financial Times reported NVidia and AMD have agreed to give the US government 15% of revenues from chip sales to China, aiming to secure export licenses for semiconductors. Investors see the move as broadly positive for both NVidia and AMD.

There are no economic releases today in a week full of key data. The current outlook for a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting stands at 88% and another cut by the end of the year. The presumed cut at the September meeting is presently fully discounted. Any increase in inflation above what the current forecasts are won’t likely derail a cut in September. Given increasing numbers of Fed officials are falling in line with pressure; further cuts still depend on inflation and employment.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +16, NASDAQ -2, S&P +2. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.28% -1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +9 bps from Friday and +3 bps from 9:30 am Friday morning.

There isn’t anything on the schedule today; traders will focus on any news coming from the White House or any events not anticipated.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

  • Monday,

  • Nothing

  • Tuesday

  • 6 am July NFIB small business optimism index (98.9 from 98.6)

    8:30 am July CPI (consumer price index) CPI overall month/month +0.2% from +0.3%, year/year +2.8% from 2.7%; core month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +3.0% from +2.9%)

  • Wednesday

  • 7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

  • Thursday

  • 8:30 am July PPI (producer price index) month/month overall +0.2% from 0.0%, year/year +2.6% from 2.3%; core month/month +0.2% from 0.0%, year/year +0.2% from +2.6%)

    Weekly jobless claims (230K from 226)

  • Friday,

  • 8:30 am July retail sales (month/month 0.5% from +0.6%: ex vehicles +0.3% from +0.5%)

    July import and export prices (month/month import prices +0.1%, year/year -0.2%; month/month export prices +0.1% from +0.5%)

    August Empire State manufacturing index (+0.5% from +5.5% in July)

    9:15 am July industrial production and capacity utilization (production 0.0% from +0.3%, capacity utilization 77.6% unchanged from June)

    10 am mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (62.1 from 61.7 final in July)

Source: TBWS


All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Southern Oaks Mortgage, Inc. is a licensed Broker/Lender with the CA DRE Lic. #01458657, NMLS #237717

Jeffrey Eisenberg

President/Broker

NMLS: 236681

Southern Oaks Mortgage, Inc.

25060 Avenue Stanford, STE 255, Valencia CA

Company NMLS: 237717

Office: 661-964-2600

Cell: 661-904-5989

Email: jeff@somloans.com

Web: http://www.somloans.com

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Jeffrey Eisenberg

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President/Broker

NMLS: 236681

Cell: 661-904-5989


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