Published Date 8/4/2025
Last Friday the BLS revised the previous job gains down 258K from previous reports, the second time this year the agency did it. Not only were the revisions shocking, but the July jobs expected at 110K were reported up just 73K. The 10 year note dropped 16 bps the lowest since early July the 2 year note fell 28 bps. If there was any doubt about a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting it went out the window. The employment sector remains in decent shape according to most analysts.
This morning the 10 year note rate began US trading -1 bps to 4.20% after hitting 4.26% in overnight trade. US stocks traded better in futures markets prior to the 9:30 am ET open. The stock indexes took a heavy beating last Friday; DJIA -542, NASDAQ -472, S&P -101; last week DJIA -1.3`13, NASDAQ -1,358, S&P -151.
Tariffs kicked in last week, there are more scheduled this week. The headline this morning is Switzerland; they don’t have a deal unless there is news, its tariffs will be 39%.
Last week the economic calendar was full of key data, this week not as much. Treasury auctions will get a lot of focus.
Not much news over the weekend, comments rolling in about the employment data last Friday.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Monday,
10 am June factory orders (-5.0%, reported -4.8%)
Tuesday,
8:30 am June US trade deficit (-$61.5B from -$71.5B in May)
9:45 am July PMI composite index (54.6 from 52.9 in June)
10 am July ISM services sector index (51.5 from 50.8)
1 pm $58B 3 year note auction
Wednesday,
7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
1 pm $42B 10 year note auction
Thursday,
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (220K from 218K the previous week)
Q2 prelim productivity and unit labor costs (productivity +1.9% from -1.5% in Q1, unit labor costs +2.1% from +6.6% in Q1)
1 pm $25B 30 year bond auction
3 pm June consumer credit (+$7.5B from +$5.1B in May)
Friday,
No Data
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Southern Oaks Mortgage, Inc. is a licensed Broker/Lender with the CA DRE Lic. #01458657, NMLS #237717
NMLS: 236681
Southern Oaks Mortgage, Inc.
25060 Avenue Stanford, STE 255, Valencia CA
Company NMLS: 237717
Office: 661-964-2600
Cell: 661-904-5989
Email: jeff@somloans.com
NMLS: 236681
Cell: 661-904-5989
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