Big Jobs reports shocks markets with major revisions

___

At 8:30 am ET July employment data sent rates down with jobs substantially lower than estimates and huge revisions in past jobs data. NFP jobs were expected at +110K, reported at 73K, private jobs thought to be +100K reported at 83K. Where it is interesting is the revision from the last couple of months. June NFP jobs originally reported +147K revised to +14K, private jobs in June revised from 74K to 3K; May NFP jobs originally reported +125K revised to +19K; in total 258K job gains were removed from data in the previous two months due to revisions. The unemployment rate at 4.2% as expected but up from 4.1% in June. The labor participation rates estimates were 62.4% from 62.3% but dropped to 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022; a more encompassing unemployment indicator that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.9%, its highest since March. Average hourly earnings month/month +0.3% as expected, year/year thought to be 3.7% increased to 3.9%.

The 10 year note at 9 am 4.27% -10 bps, the 2 year note at 9 am 3.78% -18 bps. MBS prices at 9 am +29 bp from yesterday. The 10 year note the lowest since the beginning of July.

The report increases the probability of a Fed rate cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting and further confirms once again the Fed is late to act. By the time of the meeting given this data a 25 bp cut will already be discounted and it’s happening this morning.

On the employment news the dollar is under pressure this morning, increasing the price of gold.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -391 after declining 330 yesterday; NASDAQ opened -283, S&P -65. 10 year at 9:30 4.26% -11 bp. At 9:30 FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +31 bps from yesterday’s close and +28 bps from 9:30 yesterday.

At 9:45 am July PMI manufacturing index estimate 49.5 reported at 49.8 from 52.9 in June.

At 10 am the final University of Michigan July consumer sentiment index forecast was 61.8 dropped to 61.7.

Also at 10 am, July ISM manufacturing index thought to be at 49.5, reported at 48.0.

The data today and markets reactions show the economy is not as stable as markets thought; the DJIA down almost 1,000 points since the close Wednesday. No more scheduled data today.

Source: TBWS


All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Southern Oaks Mortgage, Inc. is a licensed Broker/Lender with the CA DRE Lic. #01458657, NMLS #237717

Jeffrey Eisenberg

President/Broker

NMLS: 236681

Southern Oaks Mortgage, Inc.

25060 Avenue Stanford, STE 255, Valencia CA

Company NMLS: 237717

Office: 661-964-2600

Cell: 661-904-5989

Email: jeff@somloans.com

Web: http://www.somloans.com

Avatar

Jeffrey Eisenberg

___

President/Broker

NMLS: 236681

Cell: 661-904-5989


Last articles

___









Load more

Mortgage Calculator

___


Scroll top