Markets will be focused on the minutes from the last FOMC meeting today

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Published Date 12/30/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under a little pressure today. The MBS market improved by +13 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: We will get two different measures of home prices today at 10 am ET. The Case Shiller HPI measures the YOY change in Metro Cities and is expected to decline from 1.4% to 1.1%. The FHFA HPI is a MOM change across all markets and is expected to be relatively flat at 0.1%.

The Fed: We will get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting at 2 pm. These Minutes are key as they are from a meeting that released the Economic Projections (dot plot chart), lowered the interest rate and had some dissenting votes.

Manufacturing: Chicago PMI at 9:45 am is expected to rise from 36.3 to 39.5 but any reading below 50 is negative and consistent readings below 40 are really concerning.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets have started under a little pressure. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/