Markets see small boost from positive jobs data

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Published Date 12/9/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -27 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: The weekly ADP Employment Change 4 week moving average improved to 4.75 thousand from -13.5 thousand. However there was once again a huge decline in jobs among small to medium sized businesses only to be offset by gains in the mid to large scale employers. We gut the very delayed September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and it was 7.658 million versus estimates of 7.200 million. We also got the October JOLTS which hit 7.670 million.

Optimism: The November NFIB Business Optimism Index improved from 98.2 to 99.0.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 10 Year note auction today at 1 pm ET.

The Fed: The FOMC started two days of meetings today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are seeing some bounce back after yesterday's losses. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/