The September Producer Price Index met expectations

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Published Date 11/25/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market improved by +11 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: The ADP Employment Change rolling 4 week moving average dropped yet again, this time by -13.5K after dropping -2.5K the prior week.

Retail Sales: We finally got the September Retail Sales report and it was not strong. The September MOM dropped from 0.6% down to 0.2% and was lower than estimates of 0.4%. Same story for ex-Autos as it dropped from 0.6% down to 0.3%. The big concern is that the Control Group fell from 0.6% down to -0.1%.

Inflation: We already got CPI for September, now we finally get the frontend of that equation with PPI and it was largely as expected. The headline MOM reading increased from -0.1% to 0.3%, YOY it remained at 2.7%. Core (ex food and energy) increased by 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis and dropped from and upwardly revised 2.9% to 2.6% on a YOY basis.

Housing: The September YOY Case Shiller HPI dropped from 1.6% down to 1.4% and the MOM FHFA Home Prices Index dropped from 0.4% to 0.0%. We will get Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

Treasury Auction: We will have a 5YR note auction at 1 pm.

Optimism: The Conference Board's November Consumer Confidence report will hit at 10 am, it is expected to be in the low 90s. It was reported at 88.7.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets continue to see some support. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/