New report from ADP showed a net gain in jobs

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Published Date 10/28/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +17 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: The August Federal Housing Finance Agency Monthly Housing Price Index turned out better than expected, rising by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.1%. But the Case Shiller Home Price Indices, which is a metro city year over year index, ended up weaker than expected, rising by only 1.6% versus estimates of 1.9%.

Jobs:There is an additional report to digest by Automatic Data Processing, known as ADP. It’s a newly created measure of weekly jobs based on a rolling 4-week average of job additions (or subtractions). The first release was for a gain of 14,250.

Manufacturing: The October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was less-worse than expected, -4 versus estimates of -14.

The Consumer: October's Consumer Confidence Report was 93.7 versus estimates of 93.4.

The Fed: Today starts two days of FOMC meetings which will culminate in Wednesday's Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement.

Treasury Auction: There is a 7-year note auction at 1pm today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

This morning markets have just been moving sideways. Volatility has started at low levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/