Markets will be paying close attention to the afternoon Consumer Credit report

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Published Date 10/7/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -6 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Optimism Update:

The TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics Economic Optimism Index was released at 10 am ET. It was expected to rise from 48.7 to 49.3. It was reported at 48.3.

Consumer Credit Update:

Perhaps the most important report of the week given that so little economic data will hit due to the Government Shutdown. We will be watching the change in revolving debt. This report does not hit until 3 pm.

Federal Reserve Update:

Today we hear from Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari. We also hear from ECB's President LaGarde.

Treasury Auction Update:

We kickoff three days of dumping our debt into the marketplace with today's shorter term 3 year note.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets saw some rocky trading that has left us trading sideways. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/