A calmer day for markets with no major news to shake things up

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Published Date 9/19/2025

There isn’t any economic news so far and nothing coming that should have any impact on bond markets today. The stock market after another day of new record highs traded a little better prior to the open at 9:30 am ET.

The reaction to the Fed on Wednesday wasn’t surprising or unusual, US financial markets were expecting a new round of Fed cuts. The FOMC and Powell didn’t say or do anything to change that view. The overall belief remains that there will be a potential 75 bps cuts between now and the end of the year. Expectations can change rapidly pending incoming data. Yesterday the weekly jobless claims were down 33K from the previous week.

The Fed’s forward projections released on Wednesday don’t point to a decline in inflation to 2.0% until 2028. Powell at Jackson Hole three weeks ago hinted that the Fed may have to re-think the appropriate level of inflation and has swung to focus on employment as its guideline.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +76, NASDAQ +89, S&P +15. 10 y at 9:30 am +4 bps from yesterday. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps from yesterday’s close and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

The appetite for MBSs has increased recently with REITs buying increased amounts of MBSs.

Today is likely to be quiet with little movement through the day.

Source: TBWS

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Jeff Beck

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American Home Lending USA

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