July inflation met market expectations

___

Published Date 8/29/2025

The July Personal Consumption Expenditures report met expectations. July personal income was also right in line with estimates, increasing the most over the last four months. Core inflation year over year at 2.9%. The highest since last February.

On a monthly basis, energy was off 1.1% and food was down 0.1%. Services prices rose 0.3% while goods decreased 0.1%. Inflation numbers were held in check by a 2.7% annual decline in prices for energy goods and services. Food prices rose 1.9% from a year ago. The balance also tilted heavily toward services prices, which jumped 3.6%, compared to just a 0.5% increase in goods.

The initial reaction was subdued. The Fed has one more key data point prior to the September 17th Federal Open Market Committee meeting which is the August employment report next Friday. Consensus remains that the Fed will cut their key rate at the meeting, but after that it is questionable. Last night Fed Governor Waller spoke, voicing his support for a 25-basis point rate cut in September, adding that he would not support a larger cut unless the August jobs report shows a significant deterioration in the labor market.

The July US trade deficit was higher than estimates at $103.8B against $87.7B forecasts.

At 9:45 am the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index reportedly fell to 41.5.

Source: TBWS

• < Prev
• Next >

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/