Three things that could impact rates this week

___

Published Date 8/18/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -6 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) The Fed, 2) Geopolitical and 3) Domestic News.

1) The Fed: This week is the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. We will hear from every single member of the FOMC this week and get a speech from Fed Chair Powell at the end of the week to close out the symposium. We will also get the Minutes from the last FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

2) Geopolitical: The financial markets are watching to see what happens with the meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky Monday and what can be worked out with Russia after last week's meeting with Putin.

3) Domestic News: We have a very light week for meaningful economic data. We have a lot of housing news but that is not something that will move the needle on rates. The 20Y Treasury bond auction is the most significant calendar event.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets have started under a little pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels but will likely increase later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

• < Prev
• Next >

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/