July PPI was much higher than expected

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Published Date 8/14/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by +19 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Inflation: July PPI jumped by the most in 3 years with the Headline MOM PPI climbing by 0.9% versus estimates of 0.2%. YOY, PPI was up 3.3% versus estimates of 2.5%. Core (ex food and energy) PPI also increased by 0.9% on a MOM basis and was up 3.7% on a YOY basis.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless claims were lighter than expected, 224K versus estimates of 228K. Continuing Claims remain stubbornly high at 1.953M.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Musalem and Barkin.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets started under pressure due to the higher than expected PPI. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/