Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 8/11/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +6 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Domestic News and 3) Geopolitical.

1) Inflation: We will get CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday. We also get Import and Export Prices and Inflation Expectations in the Consumer Sentiment Report on Friday. The main focus will be on CPI which is expected to increase by 0.2% on the headline number and 0.3% on the core.

2) Domestic News: Retail Sales will get the most attention from traders this week on Friday. Will the very weak Consumer Credit report portend and a weak Retail Sales report?

3) Geopolitical: It looks like we have a summit scheduled on Friday in Alaska between Russia and the US. Could there be some sort of agreement on Ukraine? Would Ukraine and Europe even agree? We will also have the ebb and flow of changing trade/tariff terms throughout the week.

The Fed: Here is this week's schedule:

08/12 Barkin, Schmid

08/13 Barkin, Goolsbee, Bostic

08/14 Bakin, Balance Sheet

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some sideways trading within a narrow range but we remain within our better trading channel. Volatility has started at low levels but will increase later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/