Markets finish the week with a relatively calm day

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Published Date 8/8/2025

The end of the week, no data. The week had little data that traders and investors thought significant after last Friday’s bomb shell of revisions to prior jobs data. Jobs revised down 585K from the previous three months after a 600K downward revision in November and December last year. Trust in BLS jobs data sank and future reports will be taken with trepidation.

The President's tariffs went into effect yesterday but that isn’t the end, every day new tariffs, changes to prior tariffs, and new ones added. Adding to tariffs the administration will apply tariffs on gold bars, reversing industry expectations that they would be exempted. The President nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors giving him one additional vote for rate cuts.

The FOMC will cut the FF rates at the September 17th meeting, that has already been discounted; last Friday when the jobs report revisions were announced the 2 year note fell 28 bps and has held the decline all through this week. On rate cuts after September its data dependent on inflation and employment, still a lot of voices out there that believe inflation will increase. The debate is whether inflation will continue to increase over time, or will it be a one-off bump that discounts tariffs once. This week’s ISM services report showed purchasing managers flagging accelerating price increases at the same time they reported new orders slowing; rumblings of stagflation resurfacing. The next inflation measurements drop next week with July CPI and PPI along with July retail sales.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +126 after falling 224 yesterday in volatile trading, yesterday the index opened +265 before reversing. NASDAQ opened today +79, S&P opened +21. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.27% +1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from yesterday’s close and -14 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

Source: TBWS

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