Initial Weekly Jobless claims came in a little higher than expected

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Published Date 8/7/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -3 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 226K versus estimates of 221K. Continuing Claims moved much higher from 1.936M to 1.974M.

Manufacturing: 2nd QTR Preliminary Non Farm Productivity was better than expected, 2.4% versus estimates of 2.0% and Unit Labor Costs were 1.6% versus estimates of 1.5%.

Treasury Auction: We will have an important 30Y Bond auction at 1 pm ET today.

Central Banks: The Bank of England lowered their interest rate to 4.00% but not after a historic re-vote to get it done.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets saw some initial support but are now under pressure. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/