Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 8/4/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market improved by +50 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Domestic News, 3) Central Banks.

1) Geopolitical: Fed Gov Kugler has resigned effective August 8th. Still very much is the spotlight is the August tariffs come into effect on Thursday and there is a massive push to get new trade deals.

2) Domestic News: The most important economic report this week is ISM Services which accounts for more than 2/3 of our economic engine. We will pay close attention to the Employment and Prices Paid components of this report.

3) Central Banks: The Bank of England is expected to cut by a 1/4 point this week.

Treasury Auction: We have a big week for Treasury auctions with Thursday's 30Y bond getting the most attention from long bond traders.

08/05 3 year note

08/06 10 year note

08/07 30 year bond

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets have started off with some support. Volatility has started at high levels and will likely remain that way all week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/