Big Jobs reports shocks markets with major revisions

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Published Date 8/1/2025

At 8:30 am ET July employment data sent rates down with jobs substantially lower than estimates and huge revisions in past jobs data. NFP jobs were expected at +110K, reported at 73K, private jobs thought to be +100K reported at 83K. Where it is interesting is the revision from the last couple of months. June NFP jobs originally reported +147K revised to +14K, private jobs in June revised from 74K to 3K; May NFP jobs originally reported +125K revised to +19K; in total 258K job gains were removed from data in the previous two months due to revisions. The unemployment rate at 4.2% as expected but up from 4.1% in June. The labor participation rates estimates were 62.4% from 62.3% but dropped to 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022; a more encompassing unemployment indicator that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons rose to 7.9%, its highest since March. Average hourly earnings month/month +0.3% as expected, year/year thought to be 3.7% increased to 3.9%.

The 10 year note at 9 am 4.27% -10 bps, the 2 year note at 9 am 3.78% -18 bps. MBS prices at 9 am +29 bp from yesterday. The 10 year note the lowest since the beginning of July.

The report increases the probability of a Fed rate cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting and further confirms once again the Fed is late to act. By the time of the meeting given this data a 25 bp cut will already be discounted and it’s happening this morning.

On the employment news the dollar is under pressure this morning, increasing the price of gold.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -391 after declining 330 yesterday; NASDAQ opened -283, S&P -65. 10 year at 9:30 4.26% -11 bp. At 9:30 FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +31 bps from yesterday’s close and +28 bps from 9:30 yesterday.

At 9:45 am July PMI manufacturing index estimate 49.5 reported at 49.8 from 52.9 in June.

At 10 am the final University of Michigan July consumer sentiment index forecast was 61.8 dropped to 61.7.

Also at 10 am, July ISM manufacturing index thought to be at 49.5, reported at 48.0.

The data today and markets reactions show the economy is not as stable as markets thought; the DJIA down almost 1,000 points since the close Wednesday. No more scheduled data today.

Source: TBWS

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