The June Personal Consumption Expenditures Index mostly met expectations

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Published Date 7/31/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -8 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: July Challenger Job Cuts jumped from 48K to 62K. The 2nd QTR Employment Cost Index increased by 0.9% versus estimates of 0.8%. Initial Weekly Jobless Claim remained very low at 218K while Continuing Claims remained very high at 1.946M.

Inflation: Headline June PCE increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis which matched expectations, YOY it was up 2.6% versus estimates of 2.5%. Core (ex food and energy) PCE also increased by 0.3% on a MOM basis. YOY, it was up 2.8% versus estimates of 2.7%.

Incomes and Spending: June Personal Incomes rose by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.2%, and a nice turnaround from May's contraction of -0.4%. Personal Spending increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.4%.

Manufacturing: We get the rust belt's bell-weather Chicago PMI at 9:45. It is expected remain in the toilet with a reading of 42.0.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some rocky support with the inflation data. Volatility has started high but should moderate later in the day.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/