Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 7/14/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -11 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) Retail Sales.

1) Geopolitical: There are several storylines that are garnering the attention of long bond traders. Ukraine/Russia is once again front and center. Pressure on Powell to step down, and tariffs are also key. With tariffs we had weekend announcements of 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU.

2)Inflation: When will tariffs show up in inflation data? Last week's Minutes certainly showed that the Fed has been scratching their collective heads over this. This week we will get both CPI and PPI. The bond market will rally if they are lower than expected as the prospect of a Fed rate cut will increase. But, the bond market will sell off if they are higher than expected.

3) Retail Sales: We did not get a good Consumer Credit report last week as it showed a big down turn in credit card charges. But will this translate into lower Retail Sales?

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some rocky trading that has left us under pressure. Volatility has started high and will likely stay that way this week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Jeff Beck - NMLS ID: 19488. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

Jeff Beck

Loan Expert

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 2239

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/