American Home Lending USA, LLC
Big jobs report shows stronger than expected labor market
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Published Date 7/3/2025
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Rates Currently Trending: Neutral
Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +1 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral
Its Big Jobs Friday! (Except on a Thursday).
Jobs:
June Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) added 147K versus estimates of 110K.
May NFP revised upward from 139K to 144K.
April NFP revised upward from 147K to 158K.
The rolling three month average is now 150K.
Wages:
The national Average Hourly rate increased by 8 cents to $36.30.
Average Hourly Earnings MOM 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.
Average Hourly Earnings YOY 3.7% versus estimates of 3.9%.
Unemployment Rate:
The Unemployment Rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% versus expectations for a rise to 4.3%.
The Labor Force Participation Rate moved from 62.4% to 62.3%.
The U6 Underemployment Rate fell from 7.8% to 7.7%.
Initial Weekly Jobless claims were lower than expected, 233K versus estimates of 240K. Continuing Claims remain a problem though at 1.964M.
Services: We will get ISM Non Manufacturing (services) at 10 am and it is expected to climb back above 50 with a reading of 50.5. It was reported at 50.8.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High
This morning markets are under pressure. Volatility has started at high levels.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.
Jeff Beck
President
NMLS: 19488
American Home Lending USA, LLC
240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025
Company NMLS: 71983
Office: 618-310-0091
Cell: 618-806-2281
Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com
Jeff Beck
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President
NMLS: 19488
Cell: 618-806-2281
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