Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 6/30/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +33 bps last week. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Jobs, 3) ISMs.

1) Geopolitical: The "Big Beautiful Bill" July 4th target is fast approaching and we are seeing major changes to the original Bill out of the House. The bond market will be sensitive to the final version out of the Senate (if it gets out of the Senate).

2) Jobs: Its the first Friday of a new month (July) and that means we get the BLS jobs data. Except that it hits on Thursday due to the holiday. We will get NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ADP, JOLTS, Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and more.

3) ISMs: ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services will get a lot of attention. ISM Services slipped into contractionary territory last time around which is very unnerving for the bond market. But was it a "one off" or the start of a trend?

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some choppy sideways trading. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels but will increase with later this week before the holiday.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/