Bond markets continue to see mild support

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Published Date 6/26/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some mild support today. The MBS market improved by +2 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: We will get the May Pending Home Sales Index at 10 am ET, estimates call for it to fall by -0.3%.

Report Card: The 1st QTR GDP was revised lower from -0.2% down to -0.5% while Prices Paid was revised higher from 3.7% to 3.8%.

Jobs: After a couple of weeks of steadily increasing numbers, the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims reversed course and fell to 236K versus estimates of 245K. Continuing Claims were much higher though, climbing from 1.937M to 1.974M.

Manufacturing: Headline May Durable Goods Orders shot up 16.4% versus estimates of 8.5%. This was largely due to Boeing. Ex-Transportation, Durable Goods were up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.0%. Non Defense Capital Goods Ex Aircraft jumped from -1.4% to 1.7%.

The Fed: We will hear from Daly, Hammack and Barr today. The markets are focusing on a WSJ report that President Trump will name Powell's replacement sooner than originally thought. President Trump last night said he already narrowed his list down to "3 or 4".

Treasury Auction: We have our 7 year note auction at 1 pm.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are seeing some support. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/