Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 6/23/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting a little support today. The MBS market improved by +10 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) The Fed.

1) Geopolitical: This category will continue to be the main driver in the long bond market as the market reacts to this weekend's U.S./Israel bombings in Iran as well as a preliminary vote in the Senate on the "Big Beautiful Bill".

2) Inflation: We get the Fed's key measure of inflation, Core PCE on Friday. We are interested to see if tariffs are having an impact and if stagflation (high inflation, no growth) is still a concern.

3) The Fed: We have a very heavy week of Fed Speak with Fed Chair Powell testifying twice this week.

06/23 Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee and Kugler

06/24 Powell, Hammack and Williams

06/25 Powell

06/26 Barkin, Hammack and Barr

06/27 Williams and Hammack.

Treasury Auction: Here is this week's Treasury note auction schedule.

06/24 2YR

06/25 5YR

06/26 7YR

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are mostly moving sideways with a little positive support. Volatility has started low but will increase on any major geopolitical escalations and PCE.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/