Markets calm after the Federal Open Market Committee

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Published Date 6/20/2025

Juneteenth yesterday. This morning rate markets began a little higher after ending unchanged on Wednesday. The prime focus now is what the President may do with Iran.

The FOMC and Powell on Wednesday, overall, the same talk as the May meeting, no rate cuts until more clear evidence about the economic outlook and tariff impacts. The economic projections from meeting participants pointed to further stagflationary pressures, with participants seeing the gross domestic product advancing at a 1.4% pace in 2025 and inflation hitting 3%.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said inflation was tame enough that the central bank could cut rates at its next meeting, a more optimistic view than Chair Jerome Powell gave on Wednesday. Some say that is the reason for stocks better.

At 8:30 am ET the June Philadelphia Fed business index was expected at -1.0, reported at -4.0 and unchanged from May. It isn’t a major data point.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +137, NASDAQ +117, S&P +26. 10 year note 4.42% +2 bps (at 8:30 am 4.44%). FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bp from Wednesday’s close and -2 bps from 9:30 am Wednesday.

At 10 am May leading economic indicators, not a market mover, expected at -0.1% from +1.0% in April.

Source: TBWS

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