Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 6/16/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +25 bps last week. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Central Banks and 3) Retail Sales.

1) Geopolitical: Israel/Iran will continue to dominate the landscape as will correlating oil price changes. The "Big Beautiful Bill" and deficits are still very much in focus as well. We also have a very important G7 meeting this week.

2) Central Banks: The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will give us their latest Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Wednesday at 2 pm ET. While no one expects a rate move at this time, we do get their Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot chart) which is their key method of communicating future Fed action. This will be followed by a live presser with Fed Chair Powell. But our Fed is not the only Central Bank this week, we also get key interest rate decisions and policies from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

3) Retail Sales: After a relatively flat Retail Sales report in April, the May headline reading is expected to dip to -0.6% with the core around 0.2%.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 20Y Treasury Bond auction today.

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets moving sideways. Volatility has started low but could increase on any of our hot button items this week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/