Bond markets have started under pressure as geopolitical tensions rise

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Published Date 6/13/2025

Israelis attacked Iran last night. Global equity markets fell, the DJIA down as much as 400 points in futures trading, crude oil increased $6.00/barrel, interesting that no flight to safety into US treasuries that lasted. The 10 year note originally declined to 4.31% -5 bps but by 8 am ET this morning at 4.36% unchanged from yesterday.

That safety moves haven’t led to US treasuries suggests the Israeli/Iran action overnight is not seen as a major escalation, just more of the same in the region. US and global equity markets are taking hits but US stocks already stretched and current levels react to any event no matter the long term significance. The dollar this morning higher, crude oil up $5.00, gold even with the dollar weakening increased $56.00 on safety movement. Treasury yields declined last evening when Israel launched the attack, but the modest evening declines faded as the night went on.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -471, NASDAQ -160, S&P -40. 10 year note 4.38% +2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -9 bps from yesterday’s close and -9 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am, the only data today, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, sentiment expected slightly better at 53.5 from 52.2 at the end of June. The consumer outlook increased substantially to 60.5.

Source: TBWS

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Jeff Beck

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