Bond Markets have started the day under mild pressure

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Published Date 5/8/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +15 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Manufacturing: Q1 Prelim Non-Farm Productivity dropped to -0.8% versus estimates of -0.4% due to the fact that Unit Labor Costs were higher than expected, up 5.7% versus estimates of 5.3%.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 228K versus estimates of 230K and Continuing Claims were 1.879M versus estimates of 1.890M.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 30Y Treasury bond auction today at 1 pm ET.

Tariffs: An announcement is expected for a tariff/trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. that would keep the min baseline 10% tariffs in place.

Central Banks: The Bank of England cut their interest rate by 25BPS with a 7 to 2 vote.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets saw some pressure that has returned us to a previous trading channel. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/