American Home Lending USA, LLC
The final March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was a little higher than expected
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Published Date 4/25/2025
Yesterday the 10 year declined 7 bps, MBS prices jumped 39 bps. This morning not a lot of news. Overnight the stock indexes traded fractionally higher, by 8:30 am ET though the indexes backed down and traded slightly lower after strong movements yesterday.
Adjusting global trade is very complex, no one in the know believes it will be quick as was thought three months ago. Presently South Korea appears to be close to a trade deal with the US.
Evidence of strong buying to beat the anticipated tariffs is showing up recently, March retail sales were strong, and yesterday March durable goods orders that were expected +1.4% increased 9.2%. On employment, the labor market remains in great shape, yesterday weekly clams at 222K were in line with estimates and continue to remain in a tight range while continuing claims declined by 37,000 to 1,841,000 on the second week of April, a two-month low, and well below market expectations that they would rise to 1,880,000. As long as inflation doesn’t increase and the labor markets stay positive the Fed will not cut rates; the questions in most economists’ minds now is when layoffs will begin and when will inflation show up in the economy, the same thoughts held by most Fed officials.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -62, NASNAQ +22, S&P +1. 10 year 4.28% -5 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +8 bps from yesterdays close and 24 bps better than 9:30 am yesterday.
The only data today, the final March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the sentiment index expected at 50.5 from 50.8; the index 52.2. Consumers remain defensive.
Source: TBWS
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American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.
Jeff Beck
President
NMLS: 19488
American Home Lending USA, LLC
240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025
Company NMLS: 71983
Office: 618-310-0091
Cell: 618-806-2281
Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com
