American Home Lending USA, LLC
Markets see little response to lower than expected Initial Weekly Jobless claims
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Published Date 4/17/2025
Today's Mortgage Rate Summary
How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Rates Currently Trending: Neutral
Mortgage rates are under a little pressure today. The MBS market improved by +10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced low volatility yesterday.
Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral
Housing: March New Housing Starts were much lighter than expected with 1.324M versus estimates of 1.420M. But Building Permits were higher than expected, 1.482M versus estimates of 1.450M.
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continue to defy all logic and hard data from numerous sources as it dropped to 215K from 224K. Continuing Claims remain very elevated moving from 1.844M to 1.885M.
Manufacturing: The April Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed confidence plummet down to -26.4 versus estimates of +2.0. In yet another example of inflation running high, their Prices Paid jumped from 48.3 to 51.0.
Central Banks: The European Central Bank cut their interest rate by 25BPs which was widely expected.
The Fed: Today we will hear from NY Fed Pres Williams.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral
This morning markets have been trading within a narrow channel. Volatility has started at moderate levels.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.
Jeff Beck
President
NMLS: 19488
American Home Lending USA, LLC
240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025
Company NMLS: 71983
Office: 618-310-0091
Cell: 618-806-2281
Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com
