The Consumer Price Index showed less inflation than expected in March

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Published Date 4/10/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -24 bps yesterday. This may have enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Inflation: We got a nice surprise out of the March Consumer Price Index (CPI). The headline number decreased by -0.1% on a MOM basis versus estimates of +0.1%. YOY, it was up 2.4% which was below estimates of 2.6% and a nice drop from February's pace of 2.8%. Core (ex food and energy) increased by 0.1% versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis and it was up 2.8% versus estimates of 3.0% on a YOY basis.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 223K versus estimates of 223K and Continuing Claims moved lower from 1.893M versus estimates of 1.850M.

Treasury Auction: We have a very important 30 Year BOND auction today at 1 pm.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Barkin, Logan, Schmid, Bowman, Goolsbee and Harker.

Tariffs: 125% tariffs on China are still on. For 90 days, higher tariffs on 75 nations are on pause. However, during that time a flat 10% applies to all countries and the 25% auto tariffs are also on.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some bounce back. Volatility has started at high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/