Job cuts were higher than expected in January

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Published Date 2/6/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +30 bps yesterday. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: January Challenger Job Cuts jumped from 39K to 50K. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 219K versus estimates of 213K and Continuing Claims increased from 1.850M to 1.886M.

Manufacturing: The Prelim 4th QTR Non Farm Productivity dropped to 1.2% versus estimates of 1.7%. Unit Labor Costs increased from 0.8% to 3.0%!

The Fed: We will hear from Fed Gov Waller today.

Consumer Credit: Consumer Credit will hit at 3 pm ET today.

Central Banks: The Bank of England decreased their interest rate by 25BPS to 4.5% and was the first unanimous vote in a long time.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some rocky trading. Volatility has started high.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

American Home Lending USA, LLC - NMLS ID: 71983. To verify licensing, visit NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). Equal Housing Lender.

Jeff Beck

President

NMLS: 19488

American Home Lending USA, LLC

240 S Buchanan St, Edwardsville IL 62025

Company NMLS: 71983

Office: 618-310-0091

Cell: 618-806-2281

Email: jbeck@ahlusa1.com

Web: https://www.americanhomelendingusa.com/