Labor data remains strong with low Initial Weekly Jobless Claims

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Published Date 4/18/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +33 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: We will get Existing Home Sales at 10 am ET. They are expected to come in at an annualized pace of 4.2M units.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims remained very low at 212K versus estimates of 215K. The 4 week moving average remained at 214K. Continuing Claims were at 1.812M versus the prior reading of 1.810M, so both very level readings.

Manufacturing: The April Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was much better than expected, 15.5 versus estimates of 1.5.

The Fed: We will hear from Bowman, Williams and Bostic today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are seeing choppy trading within a narrow range. Volatility has started high despite the lack of meaningful movement.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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