A better than expected Producer Price Index has given markets another boost

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Published Date 7/13/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Lower

Mortgage rates are edging lower today. The MBS market improved by +57 bps yesterday. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Inflation: The June headline Producer Price Index was weaker (better) than expected, rising by just 0.1% vs. est. of 0.2%, plus the prior month was revised lower to -0.4%. YOY, it was up 0.1% vs. est. of 0.4%. Core PPI (ex food and energy) was also up 0.1% vs. est. of 0.2%. YOY it was up 2.4% vs. est. of 2.6%.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower (better) than expected, 237K vs. est. of 250K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 246K. Continuing Claims increased from 1.718M to 1.729M.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Fed Gov Waller.

Treasury Sale: Today we have a very important 30 year Treasury bond auction.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are getting some positive pressure on the producer inflation data. Volatility has started high as markets trade erratically.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Guardian Mortgage, a division of Sunflower Bank, N.A.

Dean Wegner

Mortgage Area Manager

NMLS: 220741

Guardian Mortgage

16430 N Scottsdale Rd #120, Scottsdale AZ

Company NMLS: 709491

Office: 602-432-6388

Cell: 480-286-3303

Email: deanwegner@gmc-inc.com

Web: https://www.guardianmortgageonline.com/loanoriginators/Dean-Wegner