June housing starts and permits were higher than expected

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Published Date 7/18/2025

Yesterday was very quiet, treasuries ended unchanged as did MBS prices. Early this morning the 10 year note at 8 am ET -3 bps, MBS prices began +13 bps from yesterday, stock indexes fractionally higher. Both the S&P and NASDAQ making new highs. Equity markets focusing on earnings reports.

At 8:30 am June housing starts and permits; starts expected at 1.300 million, were 1.321 million and May revised from 1.256 million to 1.263 million. Permits thought to be 1.380 million increased to 1.397 million. Starts +4.6% from May, in May down 9.7%, as noted yesterday most starts were in multi-family, up 30.6%, single family starts +883K. permits up 0.2%. Permits for buildings with five or more units rose by 8.1% to an annualized rate of 478 thousand, while single-family permits decreased by 3.7% to 866 thousand. Regionally, permits increased in the South (4.4% to 775 thousand), and were flat in the Midwest (at 217 thousand), but declined in the Northeast (-11.4% to 109 thousand) and the West (-5.1% to 296 thousand).

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller out saying he is concerned about hiring in the private sector and wants a rate cut at the FOMC meeting. “The private sector is not doing as well as everybody thinks it is,” Waller said Friday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Most of the employment growth we saw last month was in the public sector, and that means the private sector is not doing particularly well.” The June employment data two weeks ago was overall better than estimates at +147K but private jobs accounted for just 47K jobs. Waller has been consistent wanting lower rates, but he is more a loner within the FOMC.

On the tariffs front, the EU is proposing a removal of a 10% import duty on U.S. vehicles if Trump lowers the 25% tariff on EU auto imports below 20%. Treasury Secretary Bessent is meeting with Japanese officials at this weekend's World Exposition in Osaka.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +52, NASDAQ +78, S&P +13. 10 year note at 9:30 4.43% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +11 bps from yesterday’s close and +11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 61.4 from 60.7 in June.

There is technical resistance for the bellwether 10 year note at 4.50%, the last three days it has bumped close to it, this morning on Wallers comments the note has backed down on hopes the Fed may cut rates on July 30th at the next FOMC meeting, but the improvement is more technical than fundamental.

Source: TBWS

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Clark Aliano

Branch Manager / Certified Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: NMLS ID: 252422

The Aliano Group at C2 Financial Corporation

2447 Pacific Coast Hwy, Ste 200, Hermosa Beach CA 90254

Company NMLS: 135622

Office: 800-363-5600

Cell: 310-430-0486

Email: Clark@TheAlianoGroup.com

Web: https://www.TheAlianoGroup.com