June Retail Sales was stronger than expected

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Published Date 7/17/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +8 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Retail: The headline June Retail Sales were much stronger than anticipated, rising from a pace of -0.9% in May to +0.6% in June, estimates were for only 0.1%. When you strip out Autos it was up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.3%. And the Control Group doubled from 0.2% to 0.5%.

Trade: Import Prices did NOT shoot up in June, as they were only up 0.1% which was below expectations of 0.3%. Export Prices were much higher though, up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.0%.

Manufacturing: Yet another win in Manufacturing this week as the July Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey jumped from -4 to 15.9 versus estimates of -1.0.

Housing: We will get the July NAHB Home Builder's Sentiment at 10 am ET, its expected to remain in the basement with a sub par level 33.

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were very low at 221K versus estimates of 235K but Continuing Claims rose to 1.956M.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Kugler, Daly and Cook.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets saw some rocky trading that has left us at neutral levels. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Clark Aliano

Branch Manager / Certified Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: NMLS ID: 252422

The Aliano Group at C2 Financial Corporation

2447 Pacific Coast Hwy, Ste 200, Hermosa Beach CA 90254

Company NMLS: 135622

Office: 800-363-5600

Cell: 310-430-0486

Email: Clark@TheAlianoGroup.com

Web: https://www.TheAlianoGroup.com