Markets will be focused on tariffs and inflation data this week

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Published Date 7/14/2025

More tariffs over the weekend; 30% on the EU and Mexico beginning August 1st although talks continue between them and the US. The stock indexes took a big hit on trading overnight but by 8:30 am ET off the worst levels.

Treasury released its June budget last Friday; the estimates were for the month were -$50.0B but Treasury ended the month with a surplus on $27B after May’s -$515.7B deficit. The surplus driven by a sharp rise in customs duties revenue, which hit a record $27.2B. This boost in tariff collections helped push June budget receipts up 13% to $526B, while spending dropped 7% to $499B. Year-to-date, the overall budget deficit rose 5% to $1.337 trillion, due to increased outlays on healthcare, Social Security, defense, and interest on debt.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -75 after being down over 200 points in overnight trading, NASDAQ +4 and S&P -7. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.43% +1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -4 bps from Friday’s close and -6 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

In the world of estimates for Fed rate cuts the present thoughts is a 65% chance of a rate cut at the FOMC September meeting; the meeting at the end of this month won’t see any Fed movement.

The 10 year note now at its highest level in a month. Tomorrows expected increased in CPI inflation is already discounted in present levels.

Last week there were no key economic measurements, this week has plenty to digest beginning tomorrow when June CPI is reported; the forecasts are not encouraging. Month/month core CPI expected at +0.3% up from +0.1% in May, year/year core +3.0% up from +2.8%.

Over night and early tis morning the 10 year note yield at 4.44%, by 10 am the note back to 4.41% unchanged from Friday’s close.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

• Monday,

No data

• Tuesday,

8:30 am June CPI (overall month/month +0.3% from +0.1%, year/year +2.7% from +2,4%; core month/month +0.3% from +0.1%, year/year +3.0% from 2.8%)

July Empire State manufacturing index (-10.0 from -16.0)

• Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:30 am June PPI (overall month/month +0.2% from +0.1%, year/year +2.5% from +2.6%; core month/month +0.2% from +0.1%, year/year 2.7% from 3.0%)

9:15 am June industrial production and capacity utilization (month/month production +0.1%, capacity utilization 77.4$ unchanged from May)

2 pm Fed Beige Book

• Thursday,

8:30 am weekly jobless claims and continuing claims (weekly claims 233K up from 227K the previous week)

June retail sales (month/month +0.1% from -0.9% in May, ex-vehicles +0.3% from -0.3% in May)

June import and export prices (month/month imports +0.2% from 0.0%, month/month exports -0.1% from -0.9%)

July Philadelphia Fed business index (-0.4 from -4.0)

10 am July NAHB housing market index (33 from 32)

• Friday,

8:30 am June housing starts and permits (starts 1.300 million, from 1.256 million; permits 1.380 million from 1.393 million)

10 am University of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index (61.4 from 60.7 in June)

Source: TBWS

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Clark Aliano

Branch Manager / Certified Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: NMLS ID: 252422

The Aliano Group at C2 Financial Corporation

2447 Pacific Coast Hwy, Ste 200, Hermosa Beach CA 90254

Company NMLS: 135622

Office: 800-363-5600

Cell: 310-430-0486

Email: Clark@TheAlianoGroup.com

Web: https://www.TheAlianoGroup.com