Volatility increased as morning reports put pressure on bond markets

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Published Date 7/1/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +13 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: We will get the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) at 10 am ET. The consensus estimates call for a move from 7.391M to 7.300M. It was reproted at 7.769M.

Construction: May Construction Spending is expected to improve from -0.4% to -0.2% at 10 am.

Manufacturing: After yesterday's dismal Chicago PMI, how will today's ISM Manufacturing PMI fare? It is expected to remain in contractionary territory with a reading of 48.5. The bond market will really focus on Prices Paid and Employment.

The Fed: We will hear from Fed Chair Powell from Europe this morning.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under some pressure. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Clark Aliano

Branch Manager / Certified Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: NMLS ID: 252422

The Aliano Group at C2 Financial Corporation

2447 Pacific Coast Hwy, Ste 200, Hermosa Beach CA 90254

Company NMLS: 135622

Office: 800-363-5600

Cell: 310-430-0486

Email: Clark@TheAlianoGroup.com

Web: https://www.TheAlianoGroup.com