Markets start the weekly surprisingly calm

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Published Date 6/23/2025

Friday stock indexes didn’t change, this morning the indexes began with little change from Friday. The US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, surprising the world when it happened last Saturday. The world now attempting to assess the future impact and implications, the UN security counsel objecting as would be expected. Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, 20 million barrels a day flow through the Strait. For oil markets it’s a key passage. Oil prices little changed this morning, so too gold prices little changed. In total there is very little change in key markets from Friday.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -23, NASDAQ -24, S&P unchanged. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.34% -4 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +10 bps from Friday’s close and +15 bp bps from 9:30 am Friday.

The surprise last Saturday hasn’t moved markets, likely to take a few days to see what Iran and Israel will do now. The US administration saying it isn’t looking for a regime change in Iran, but the possibility is hanging over markets, treasury yields are falling, and the dollar is strengthening. Still talk of a rate cut coming in September but there hasn’t been much movement in rates to suggest markets are pricing in a cut; even a cut though won’t help the long end of the of the curve much; tariffs and inflation continue to be major factors for traders. The week is beginning with a lot of uncertainty with not much movement.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

• Monday,

10 am May existing home sales (3.950 million from 4.00 million, as reported at 4.03 million, +0.8%, year/year -0.7%)

• Tuesday,

8:30 am Q1 current account deficit (-$442B from Q4 -$303.9B)

9 am April Case/Shiller home price index (20 city year/year 4.0% from 4.1%)

10 am June consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (99.0 from 98.0 in May)

Fed Chair Powell testifying at the House Financial Service Committee

1 pm $69B 2 year note auction

• Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

10 am May new home sales (694K from 743K)

Powell at the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

1 pm $70B 5 year note auction

• Thursday,

8:30 am Weekly jobless claims (245K unch from prior week)

May durable goods orders (+7.0% from -6.3%, ex-transportation +0.1%)

Final read on Q1 GDP (-0.2% unch from prior reports)

May advance US trade deficit (-$90.7B from -$87.6B in April)

10 am May pending home sales (+0.5% from -6.3% in April)

1 pm $44B 7 year note auction

• Friday,

8:30 am May PCE inflation overall (month/month +0.1%unch from April, year/year +2.3% from +2.1%; core month/month +0.1% unch from April, year/year +2.6% from 2.5%)

May personal income month/month +0.3% from +0.8%, personal spending +0.2% unch from April

10 am final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index 60.5 unch from mid-month

Source: TBWS

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Clark Aliano

Branch Manager / Certified Mortgage Advisor

NMLS: NMLS ID: 252422

The Aliano Group at C2 Financial Corporation

2447 Pacific Coast Hwy, Ste 200, Hermosa Beach CA 90254

Company NMLS: 135622

Office: 800-363-5600

Cell: 310-430-0486

Email: Clark@TheAlianoGroup.com

Web: https://www.TheAlianoGroup.com