Published Date 9/3/2024
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -9 bps last week. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Jobs, 2) ISMs and 3) The Fed.
1) Jobs: Its the first week of a new month which means we get a Big Jobs Friday report from the BLS. But throughout the week we will get a ton of job and wage related data points that the bond market will be keenly focused on: Unit Labor Costs, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Payrolls, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, JOLTS, Average Hourly Earnings.
2) ISMs: After a round of very weak/contractionary regional manufacturing reports last week, this week's ISM Manufacturing PMI will get a lot of weight but the ISM Services which accounts for 2/3 of our economic engine will be the center of attention with attention given to Prices Paid and the Employment Index.
3) The Fed: We will get the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday which is prepared in advance of the September FOMC meeting. Also, Fed Gov Waller will speak on Friday after the Jobs data. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates on Wednesday.
This morning markets have bounced back from Friday's losses. Volatility has started high at moderate levels and will increase later in the week with the deluge of data.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWSAll information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NMLS: 38412
Northpointe Bank
8660 College Parkway, Suite 150, Fort Myers FL
Company NMLS: 447490
Cell: 239-470-6310
Email: cheidt@heidtfinancialllc.com
NMLS: 38412
Cell: 239-470-6310
9/23/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more
9/23/2024
Two releases today. The Chicago Fed National Activity at 8:30 am ET and PMI Flas... view more
9/20/2024
All that money for your dream home just left your account. Soon you’ll hear the ... view more
9/20/2024
No significant news this morning, markets still digesting what the Fed means usi... view more
9/19/2024
While Realtors are often the in-the-trenches prognosticators of how to improve y... view more
9/19/2024
Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower (better) than expected, 219K versus est... view more
9/18/2024
Move over, garden hose – there's a new hero in town...... view more
9/18/2024
This afternoon is the widely anticipated FOMC rate cut. It will be the first cut... view more
9/17/2024
If Bob Dylan was right about "The times, they are a-changin’,” it’s time at last... view more