Published Date 5/1/2024
Its May Day and the FOMC meeting. Rates began unchanged from yesterday’s selling that sent MBS prices down 36 bps and the 10 year note up 7 bps to 4.69%. Not only FOMC but we have key data prior to the policy statement at 2 pm ET.
MBA applications last week declined 2.3% from the prior week, purchase applications -1.7% and re-finances -3.3%.
At 8:15 am April ADP private jobs expected at 183K increased 192K, the prior week revised from 184K to +208K. The job market is not cooling down much based on that data, ADP and BLS jobs do deviate from each other. BLS jobs report on Friday, forecasts for jobs growth 240K but BLS data includes government jobs that ADP does not.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +23 after falling 507 yesterday, NASDAQ -12 after dropping 325 yesterday, S&P -7 from -80 yesterday. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.65% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +19 bps from yesterday’s close and +6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 9:45 am April PMI manufacturing index expected at 49.9, reported at 50.0.
At 10 am key March JOLTS job openings, expected at 8.70 million down from 8.75 million in February, reported 8.488 the lowest since February 2021. April ISM manufacturing index declined to 49.2, under 50 suggests contraction, employment jumped 1.2 percentage points to 48.6, prices paid rose 5.1 to 60.9 in April.
This afternoon at 2 pm is when the markets will react to the FOMC statement, then at 2:30 pm Fed chief Powell will hold his press conference. Markets don’t expect a rate cut. Two weeks ago, Powell in a speech said rates could be higher for longer. Let’s see what he says this afternoon, the wrong take in the markets will send the 10 year note higher and stocks lower. Whatever occurs we expect high volatility this afternoon.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NMLS: 38412
Northpointe Bank
8660 College Parkway, Suite 150, Fort Myers FL
Company NMLS: 447490
Cell: 239-470-6310
Email: cheidt@heidtfinancialllc.com
NMLS: 38412
Cell: 239-470-6310
6/14/2024
At 8:30 am ET more good news on May imports and export prices. Imports expected ... view more
6/13/2024
Kitchens are arguably today’s house jewelry — often the part of the house that m... view more
6/13/2024
The May headline Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted by -0.2% versus estimates... view more
6/12/2024
Pickleball. The sport became a thing in the summer of 1965, when its founders...... view more
6/12/2024
The improvement in rates began yesterday on the very strong 10 year note auction... view more
6/11/2024
It wasn’t that long ago that bathrooms were simply “necessary rooms.” Usually on... view more
6/11/2024
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was higher than expected, hitting 90.... view more
6/10/2024
Price per square foot. It’s a measure used mostly in the construction industry. ... view more
6/10/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more